A Working Theory of What Happened at the Rainbow Bridge

Sudden Unintended Acceleration Is The Most Plausible Provisional Explanation

I live in Buffalo and I was driving near the Buffalo/Niagara International Airport when a vehicle traveling at an excessive rate of speed went airborne at the Rainbow Bridge International Border Crossing in Niagara Falls in the early afternoon of Wednesday, November 22, 2023.

I seek an explanation to the crash beyond the reflexive chorus of hate and blame that seems to have replaced responsible public discourse. As a former prosecutor who investigated incidents such as this, I offer my own, provisional analysis.

I wish to make clear that I do not know what actually happened. I seek to objectively analyze the facts and see if they lead to a working theory. To quote Sherlock Holmes:

It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has the data. Insensibly one begins to twist the facts to suit theories instead of theories to fit the facts (A Scandal in Bohemia).

Ignore Disinformation

As always, we must begin by ignoring disinformation.

I offer my sincere condolences to the friends and family of Kurt and Monica Villani, the local couple who tragically perished in the terrifying, fiery crash the day before Thanksgiving; I wish the Customs and Border Official who was injured a speedy recovery. I thank him (and all civil servants) for his important work.

The Villani Family’s misery is no doubt compounded by disinformation that followed the crash, including elected officials who, without evidence, called the Villanis “terrorist attackers.”

Indeed, even after the FBI announced it had ruled out terrorism as a cause of the crash, United States Senator Ted Cruz has not removed the “terrorism” post and it remains on his X feed as of publication of this writing at approximately 1:00PM on November 24, 2023.

To disinformation disseminators, there are no objective “facts” and things that occur in the world can best be explained as evidence of an insidious conspiracy. Although this is a not the forum for explaining motive, it is clear that such disinformation serves to create meaning and purpose for those incapable or unwilling to think critically.

What Does the Evidence Suggest May Have Happened?

“A search of the scene revealed no explosive materials, and no terrorism nexus was identified,” the FBI’s Buffalo office said in a statement. “the matter has been turned over to the Niagara Falls Police Department as a traffic investigation.”

First, the evidence supports the conclusion that the vehicle, a 2022 Bentley Flying Spur, did not intentionally crash into the Rainbow Bridge facility. There is nothing about the Villanis at this early stage to suggest they had a political agenda or were in any way radicalized. Ted Cruz is likely completely wrong in his allegation, which he has not retracted.

Further, an eyewitness stated that he saw the Bentley “speed by at what he said could have been as fast as 100 miles per hour or more, swerve down the road, and crash before going airborne (emphasis added).” As any accident investigator will tell you, swerving is one of the only ways to reduce the speed of a vehicle when the brakes don’t work.

If this is correct, we can infer that the operator of the Bentley was trying to decrease its speed as it approached the Rainbow Bridge facility. This, along with the video evidence (video, above) that the Bentley was being steered away from the center of the facility, allows us to provisionally rule out an intentional act.

Second, if we call it an accident, what caused it? This answer seems easy: the accident was caused by excessive speed.

Third: What caused the vehicle to unintentionally travel at an excessive rate of speed despite an operator who was seeking to decrease the vehicle’s speed by swerving? The most plausible answer is sudden, unintended acceleration.

Sudden Unintended Acceleration

From Cars Gone Wild: The Major Contribution to Unintended Acceleration is Pedal Error:

The term “unintended acceleration” (UA – sometimes called “sudden acceleration”) was coined in the 1980s to describe a type of automobile accident that was attracting considerable attention at the time.

In these episodes, the driver would report that, as he/she was initiating a driving cycle, after starting the engine, placing the right foot lightly on the brake (to prevent the car from “creeping”), and shifting from Park to a drive gear (usually Park or Reverse, depending on the situation), the vehicle would go to an uncommanded (i.e., unintended) wide-open-throttle condition, coupled with an apparent loss of braking effectiveness (Pollard and Sussman, 1989; Reinhart, 1989; Schmidt, 1989, 1993). The episode would often end with a crash.

In the 1980s, there was a surge of UA reports, representing almost every brand of automobile.

Sudden Unintended Acceleration in 2022 Bentley Flying Spurs

In the United States there have been three NHTSA recall notices for the vehicle in question, none of which are related to unintended acceleration. Such a recall for unintended acceleration did take place, however, in Australia.

The Australian recall notice lodged with the (Australian) Department of Infrastructure, says: “[d]ue to inconsistent fitment of the fuse box and the electrical harness the A-post lower trim can protrude into the cabin reducing clearance to the accelerator pedal. If the accelerator pedal is fully pressed whilst driving and is unable to return to its resting position, the vehicle will continue to accelerate, even when the driver's foot is removed from the accelerator pedal.”

To be clear, this is circumstantial evidence and does nothing to prove that unintended acceleration was the cause of the Rainbow Bridge crash. That said, the notice’s description of a vehicle, “continu[ing] to accelerate even when the driver’s foot is removed from the accelerator,” is a plausible scenario for the evidence thus far.

How To Proceed

If I was part of the official investigation (and to be clear, I am not) I would adopt sudden, unintended acceleration as a working theory. I would examine the autopsy report of the driver, examine the accident scene to see whether or not the vehicle successfully applied its brakes (look for skid marks), and I would examine the vehicle itself for evidence of pedal error.

Again, I don’t know what happened at the Rainbow Bridge Wednesday, except that two people are dead and one was injured in a terrifying, fiery accident at an international border. An objective examination of the available evidence which discredits intentional disinformation suggests that the most likely explanation is sudden, unintentional acceleration.

I have no emotional attachment to this theory. If the facts later suggest a different explanation I will discount unintended acceleration and adopt whatever explanation best accommodates the objective facts.